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Adana Demirspor 1–5 Osmanlispor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mete Kalkavan, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Osmanlispor win43%2.25
Draw28%3.43
Adana Demirspor win28%3.47

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'🟨Mauricio Ramos · Adana Demirspor
19'⚽Badou Ndiaye · Osmanlispor
20'🟨Badou Ndiaye · Osmanlispor
38'🟨Vaclav Prochazka · Osmanlispor
41'🟨Samican Keskin · Adana Demirspor
42'⚽Pierre Webo · Osmanlispor
50'⚽Adam Maher · Osmanlispor
51'⚽Roni · Adana Demirspor
64'🟨Numan Çürüksu · Osmanlispor
68'⚽Thievy Bifouma · Osmanlispor
69'🟨Charles Itandje · Adana Demirspor
77'🟨Renan Foguinho · Adana Demirspor
82'⚽Musa Çağıran · Osmanlispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAdana DemirsporOsmanlispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.22
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.22
box share (last 5)0.450.45
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days80.003216.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.412.50
elo
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venue5 Ocak
1449.60
1545.42
elo momentum (last 5)26.85-42.55
eye test v1-0.05-0.63
eye trend v1-0.28-0.34
first sub minute (last 10)57.3070.40
form points (last 5)8.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.88
keeper form v10.660.71
league points17.0027.00
league rank17.009.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4074.40
possession avg (last 5)45.4051.60
rest days5.812.77
scorer concentration0.250.21
season ppg0.851.35
skill v1-0.50-0.07
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.00
state index0.05-0.49
sterile dominance v1-0.46-0.00
threat rate (last 10)0.260.28
threat rate (last 3)0.220.22
threat rate (last 5)0.250.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.80