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Genclerbirligi 2–0 Konyaspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Cuneyt Cakir, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genclerbirligi win43%2.29
Draw31%3.14
Konyaspor win26%3.70

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽Serdar Gürler · Genclerbirligi
32'🟨Mehmet Uslu · Konyaspor
45'🟨Uğur Çiftçi · Genclerbirligi
49'⚽Serdar Gürler · Genclerbirligi
64'🟨Ömer Ali Şahiner · Konyaspor
72'🟨Jagoš Vuković · Konyaspor
73'🟨Moryke Fofana · Konyaspor
83'🟨Johannes Hopf · Genclerbirligi
88'🟨Ahmet Oğuz · Genclerbirligi
90'🟨Amir Hadžiahmetović · Konyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGenclerbirligiKonyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.22
box share (last 5)0.580.50
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days110.00872.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.061.96
elo1491.62
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAnkara 19 Mayıs Stadyumu
1479.35
elo momentum (last 5)-32.73-20.24
eye test v10.40-0.82
eye trend v1-0.200.41
first sub minute (last 10)46.7060.20
form points (last 5)4.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.40-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.140.94
keeper form v10.710.74
league points23.0028.00
league rank13.008.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet5.006.00
matches since win3.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.2076.40
possession avg (last 5)49.6049.40
rest days7.986.88
scorer concentration0.430.50
season ppg1.211.40
skill v1-0.23-0.02
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.202.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.402.60
state index-0.66-0.59
sterile dominance v1-0.400.12
threat rate (last 10)0.250.20
threat rate (last 3)0.230.24
threat rate (last 5)0.270.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80