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Antalyaspor 1–0 Kardemir Karabukspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Umit Ozturk, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor win44%2.20
Kardemir Karabukspor win29%3.41
Draw27%3.60

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'🟨Mostapha El Kabir · Antalyaspor
39'🟨Zeki Yildirim · Antalyaspor
43'🟨Ceyhun Gülselam · Kardemir Karabukspor
46'🟨Barış Başdaş · Kardemir Karabukspor
82'⚽Samuel Eto'o · Antalyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntalyasporKardemir Karabukspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.36
box share (last 5)0.610.49
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days140.0017.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.492.72
elo
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAntalya Stadyumu
1538.00
1481.66
elo momentum (last 5)43.149.06
eye test v10.32-0.26
eye trend v1-0.190.02
first sub minute (last 10)62.1045.10
form points (last 5)13.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.700.88
keeper form v10.790.68
league points32.0027.00
league rank5.0010.00
matches since blank12.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.003.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.6069.20
possession avg (last 5)51.2046.80
rest days5.907.77
scorer concentration0.240.27
season ppg1.601.35
skill v10.02-0.95
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.104.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.203.60
state index0.84-0.21
sterile dominance v1-0.02-0.78
threat rate (last 10)0.270.26
threat rate (last 3)0.260.26
threat rate (last 5)0.240.27
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.20