⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Kayserispor 2–0 Bursaspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Fri, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Yasar Kemal Ugurlu, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor win47%2.06
Draw29%3.35
Bursaspor win24%4.15

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟥Deniz Yilmaz · Bursaspor
33'🟨Raheem Lawal · Kayserispor
35'🟨Levent Gülen · Kayserispor
49'⚽Welliton · Kayserispor
50'🟨Welliton · Kayserispor
78'🟨Ismail Konuk · Bursaspor
79'⚽Rajko Rotman · Kayserispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporBursaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.29
box share (last 5)0.630.61
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days47.0020.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.654.33
elo1458.17
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKadir Has Stadium
1488.75
elo momentum (last 5)50.79-43.55
eye test v10.39-1.12
eye trend v10.53-0.37
first sub minute (last 10)52.4060.50
form points (last 5)10.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.370.74
keeper form v10.580.71
league points19.0028.00
league rank16.007.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.009.00
matches since win0.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.2071.60
possession avg (last 5)49.2047.80
rest days5.006.00
scorer concentration0.390.29
season ppg0.951.40
skill v1-0.26-0.63
sot against avg (last 5)4.005.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.803.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.331.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.202.20
state index0.23-0.97
sterile dominance v1-0.330.10
threat rate (last 10)0.220.22
threat rate (last 3)0.250.17
threat rate (last 5)0.260.17
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.20