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Gaziantep 1–0 Adana Demirspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Mon, Feb 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Cuneyt Cakir, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gaziantep win42%2.33
Draw29%3.34
Adana Demirspor win29%3.37

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

46'🟨Sefa Yılmaz · Gaziantep
55'⚽Anis Ben-Hatira · Gaziantep
67'🟨Wallace Reis · Gaziantep
86'🟨Sergei Kislyak · Gaziantep
89'🟨Marcinho · Gaziantep
90'🟨Nabil Ghilas · Gaziantep
90'🟨Bekir Yilmaz · Adana Demirspor
90'🟨Roni · Adana Demirspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGaziantepAdana Demirspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)—0.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)—0.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)—0.43
box share (last 5)—0.52
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days43.0074.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)4.243.34
elo1389.98
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGaziantep Stadium
1459.89
elo momentum (last 5)-51.3145.46
eye test v10.000.28
eye trend v10.44-0.25
first sub minute (last 10)48.8058.10
form points (last 5)0.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.200.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.200.79
keeper form v1—0.68
league points11.0017.00
league rank18.0017.00
matches since blank0.006.00
matches since clean sheet11.000.00
matches since win9.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.2074.00
possession avg (last 5)42.8041.80
rest days15.1714.00
scorer concentration0.270.25
season ppg0.610.89
skill v1-0.71-0.81
sot against avg (last 5)8.003.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.204.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.005.00
state index-1.590.31
sterile dominance v1-0.93-0.93
threat rate (last 10)0.240.26
threat rate (last 3)0.310.22
threat rate (last 5)0.290.28
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.00