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Konyaspor 1–1 Antalyaspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Serkan Cinar, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor win38%2.58
Draw31%3.13
Antalyaspor win31%3.15

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'🟨Ali Çamdalı · Konyaspor
36'🟨Marc Kibong Mbamba · Konyaspor
40'🟨Ali Turan · Konyaspor
44'⚽Mostapha El Kabir · Antalyaspor
45'🟨Danilo · Antalyaspor
59'⚽Riad Bajić · Konyaspor
61'🟨Charles · Antalyaspor
62'🟨Samuel Eto'o · Antalyaspor
63'🟨Chico · Antalyaspor
63'🟨Chico · Antalyaspor
63'🟥Chico · Antalyaspor
64'🟨Deniz Kadah · Antalyaspor
67'🟨Charles · Antalyaspor
67'🟥Charles · Antalyaspor
71'🟨Barry Douglas · Konyaspor
90'🟨Halil İbrahim Sönmez · Konyaspor
90'🟨Saso Fornezzi · Antalyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKonyasporAntalyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.210.50
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.46
box share (last 5)0.460.71
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days865.00134.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.702.47
elo1479.39
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKonya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu
1537.95
elo momentum (last 5)-19.1935.41
eye test v1-1.090.79
eye trend v10.200.03
first sub minute (last 10)54.8062.30
form points (last 5)4.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.001.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.70
keeper form v10.700.73
league points27.0031.00
league rank8.005.00
matches since blank2.0011.00
matches since clean sheet5.002.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.2078.60
possession avg (last 5)45.8054.40
rest days12.8314.88
scorer concentration0.470.25
season ppg1.421.63
skill v1-0.500.56
sot against avg (last 5)6.004.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.305.50
sot for avg (last 3)2.336.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.206.00
state index-0.390.67
sterile dominance v1-0.080.25
threat rate (last 10)0.190.29
threat rate (last 3)0.230.25
threat rate (last 5)0.200.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.402.00