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Bursaspor 1–1 Fenerbahce

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Halil Umut Meler, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win53%1.83
Draw25%3.83
Bursaspor win21%4.56

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'🟨Ricardo Faty · Bursaspor
17'🟨Ertuğrul Ersoy · Bursaspor
21'🟨Jeremain Lens · Fenerbahce
22'🟨Boban Jović · Bursaspor
22'⚽ (pen)Moussa Sow · Fenerbahce
44'🟨Boban Jović · Bursaspor
44'🟥Boban Jović · Bursaspor
56'🟨Alper Potuk · Fenerbahce
71'🟨Aziz Behich · Bursaspor
88'⚽ (pen)Pablo Batalla · Bursaspor
90'🟨Harun Tekin · Bursaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBursasporFenerbahce
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.37
box share (last 5)0.670.63
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days14.00194.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)4.332.25
elo1486.65
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu
1620.79
elo momentum (last 5)-37.97-1.80
eye test v1-0.580.19
eye trend v1-0.180.15
first sub minute (last 10)64.2053.90
form points (last 5)3.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.55
keeper form v10.720.79
league points27.0035.00
league rank7.004.00
matches since blank0.005.00
matches since clean sheet8.001.00
matches since win4.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.2078.00
possession avg (last 5)49.0053.00
rest days13.1713.00
scorer concentration0.290.22
season ppg1.421.84
skill v1-0.490.40
sot against avg (last 5)5.605.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.304.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.80
state index-0.660.49
sterile dominance v1-0.170.27
threat rate (last 10)0.230.22
threat rate (last 3)0.220.25
threat rate (last 5)0.220.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.80