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Osmanlispor 0–1 Trabzonspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alper Ulusoy, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Osmanlispor win45%2.15
Draw29%3.40
Trabzonspor win26%3.76

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽Olcay Şahan · Trabzonspor
41'🟨Aykut Demir · Osmanlispor
43'🟨Musa Çağıran · Osmanlispor
53'🟨Yusuf Yazıcı · Trabzonspor
73'🟨Okay Yokuşlu · Trabzonspor
75'🟨Badou Ndiaye · Osmanlispor
85'🟨Dzon Delarge · Osmanlispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOsmanlisporTrabzonspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.39
box share (last 5)0.450.39
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days3208.00407.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.421.87
elo1557.57
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOsmanlı Stadyumu
1504.62
elo momentum (last 5)-24.6717.27
eye test v10.370.22
eye trend v1-0.370.01
first sub minute (last 10)69.7058.90
form points (last 5)5.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.671.57
keeper form v10.690.74
league points27.0027.00
league rank9.007.00
matches since blank2.003.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.0077.00
possession avg (last 5)52.2044.80
rest days13.1013.00
scorer concentration0.210.25
season ppg1.421.42
skill v10.34-0.29
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.805.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.675.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.80
state index-0.230.29
sterile dominance v1-0.29-0.53
threat rate (last 10)0.290.29
threat rate (last 3)0.250.27
threat rate (last 5)0.300.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.402.00