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Alanyaspor 3–0 Genclerbirligi

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Umit Ozturk, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genclerbirligi win40%2.47
Alanyaspor win32%3.09
Draw29%3.39

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Junior Fernandes · Alanyaspor
25'🟨Emre Akbaba · Alanyaspor
44'🟨Darko Lazić · Alanyaspor
45'⚽Vagner Love · Alanyaspor
49'⚽Emre Akbaba · Alanyaspor
90'🟨Ahmet Oğuz · Genclerbirligi

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlanyasporGenclerbirligi
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.32
box share (last 5)0.430.56
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days803.00102.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.773.06
elo1436.10
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBAHCESEHIR OKULLARI ARENA
1509.81
elo momentum (last 5)-44.70-14.44
eye test v1-0.260.25
eye trend v1-0.150.17
first sub minute (last 10)58.1051.90
form points (last 5)1.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.80-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.801.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.261.10
keeper form v10.540.76
league points18.0023.00
league rank15.0011.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.004.00
matches since win5.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0073.40
possession avg (last 5)46.6048.40
rest days13.7713.00
scorer concentration0.240.43
season ppg0.951.28
skill v1-0.37-0.41
sot against avg (last 5)5.604.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.805.00
state index-1.17-0.31
sterile dominance v1-0.30-0.70
threat rate (last 10)0.260.26
threat rate (last 3)0.230.28
threat rate (last 5)0.240.30
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.20