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Kayserispor 4–1 Fenerbahce

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Jan 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mete Kalkavan, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win56%1.74
Draw27%3.65
Kayserispor win17%5.66

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

31'🟨Deniz Türüç · Kayserispor
32'⚽Umut Bulut · Kayserispor
35'🟨Alper Potuk · Fenerbahce
41'⚽Mehmet Topal · Fenerbahce
44'🟨Erkan Kaş · Kayserispor
46'🟨Güray Vural · Kayserispor
61'🟨Salih Uçan · Fenerbahce
70'⚽Güray Vural · Kayserispor
88'⚽Welliton · Kayserispor
90'🟨Martin Škrtel · Fenerbahce
90'⚽Güray Vural · Kayserispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporFenerbahce
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.39
box share (last 5)0.590.66
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days28.00181.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.652.36
elo1417.51
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKadir Has Stadium
1646.17
elo momentum (last 5)-4.6311.19
eye test v10.070.13
eye trend v10.510.08
first sub minute (last 10)56.0055.80
form points (last 5)4.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.001.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.701.52
keeper form v10.570.87
league points13.0035.00
league rank17.004.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6076.40
possession avg (last 5)55.0053.00
rest days8.237.00
scorer concentration0.500.23
season ppg0.721.94
skill v10.480.22
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.204.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.675.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.80
state index-0.700.88
sterile dominance v10.390.30
threat rate (last 10)0.200.21
threat rate (last 3)0.220.24
threat rate (last 5)0.230.22
venue ppg (last 5)0.602.40