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Antalyaspor 2–1 Alanyaspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Arda Kardesler, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor win54%1.82
Draw25%3.90
Alanyaspor win21%4.58

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟨Sakıb Aytaç · Antalyaspor
41'⚽Vagner Love · Alanyaspor
45'🟨Carlos García · Alanyaspor
45'⚽Samuel Eto'o · Antalyaspor
63'🟨Efecan Karaca · Alanyaspor
69'🟨Zeki Yildirim · Antalyaspor
72'🟨Emre Akbaba · Alanyaspor
76'⚽Samuel Eto'o · Antalyaspor
90'🟨Mbilla Etame · Antalyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntalyasporAlanyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.470.47
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.42
box share (last 5)0.670.56
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days119.00789.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.392.82
elo1532.02
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAntalya Stadyumu
1442.03
elo momentum (last 5)41.88-19.95
eye test v10.520.01
eye trend v1-0.050.10
first sub minute (last 10)62.6057.30
form points (last 5)12.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.802.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.711.26
keeper form v10.740.54
league points28.0018.00
league rank5.0015.00
matches since blank10.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win0.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.6074.20
possession avg (last 5)52.8045.40
rest days6.234.96
scorer concentration0.280.20
season ppg1.561.00
skill v10.23-0.55
sot against avg (last 5)5.204.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.405.00
sot for avg (last 3)6.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.404.40
state index0.76-0.82
sterile dominance v1-0.01-0.45
threat rate (last 10)0.290.26
threat rate (last 3)0.250.26
threat rate (last 5)0.260.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.80