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Rizespor 1–0 Kardemir Karabukspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Yasar Kemal Ugurlu, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rizespor win43%2.27
Kardemir Karabukspor win29%3.41
Draw28%3.44

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'🟨Ceyhun Gülselam · Kardemir Karabukspor
6'⚽Leonard Kweuke · Rizespor
85'🟨Marwane Saadane · Rizespor
90'🟨Marwane Saadane · Rizespor
90'🟥Marwane Saadane · Rizespor
90'🟨André Poko · Kardemir Karabukspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRizesporKardemir Karabukspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.26
box share (last 5)0.660.55
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days789.00211.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.922.16
elo
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÇaykur Didi Stadyumu
1444.71
1478.18
elo momentum (last 5)-2.81-14.24
eye test v1-0.05-0.12
eye trend v1-0.280.01
first sub minute (last 10)55.3048.20
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.950.88
keeper form v10.640.61
league points16.0024.00
league rank15.0010.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet15.001.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.8069.40
possession avg (last 5)45.6049.80
rest days7.006.88
scorer concentration0.290.30
season ppg0.891.33
skill v1-0.90-0.75
sot against avg (last 5)5.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.00
state index-0.39-0.36
sterile dominance v1-0.83-0.92
threat rate (last 10)0.280.27
threat rate (last 3)0.260.34
threat rate (last 5)0.280.31
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.80