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Alanyaspor 1–4 Besiktas

← Süper Lig 2016 · Mon, Jan 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alper Ulusoy, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win70%1.40
Draw19%5.27
Alanyaspor win12%8.40

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'⚽Cenk Tosun · Besiktas
17'🟨Cenk Tosun · Besiktas
39'⚽Ryan Babel · Besiktas
48'⚽ (pen)Ricardo Quaresma · Besiktas
53'🟨Fabri · Besiktas
54'⚽ (pen)Vagner Love · Alanyaspor
55'🟨Wilde-Donald Guerrier · Alanyaspor
55'🟨Ricardo Quaresma · Besiktas
73'⚽Marcelo · Besiktas
82'🟨Ryan Babel · Besiktas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlanyasporBesiktas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.48
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.40
box share (last 5)0.580.59
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days784.00602.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.803.50
elo1455.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBAHCESEHIR OKULLARI ARENA
1603.09
elo momentum (last 5)-18.0019.84
eye test v10.400.57
eye trend v1-0.240.13
first sub minute (last 10)58.4055.10
form points (last 5)4.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.200.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.350.85
keeper form v10.510.75
league points18.0038.00
league rank14.002.00
matches since blank2.004.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.6082.60
possession avg (last 5)50.2061.00
rest days9.277.04
scorer concentration0.200.26
season ppg1.062.24
skill v1-0.181.43
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.206.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.336.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.205.60
state index-0.510.63
sterile dominance v1-0.341.15
threat rate (last 10)0.270.24
threat rate (last 3)0.250.25
threat rate (last 5)0.270.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.60