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Bursaspor 0–1 Adana Demirspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, Jan 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Suat Arslanboga, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bursaspor win59%1.66
Draw23%4.30
Adana Demirspor win18%5.28

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'🟨Ismail Konuk · Bursaspor
36'🟨Ousmane Viera · Adana Demirspor
45'🟨Bekir Yilmaz · Adana Demirspor
84'⚽Magaye Gueye · Adana Demirspor
87'🟨Ricardo Faty · Bursaspor
89'🟨Aziz Behich · Bursaspor
90'🟨Digão · Adana Demirspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBursasporAdana Demirspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.41
box share (last 5)0.670.61
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days417.0051.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)4.053.27
elo1506.03
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu
1432.51
elo momentum (last 5)-19.01-8.77
eye test v1-0.230.18
eye trend v10.130.26
first sub minute (last 10)58.4058.20
form points (last 5)6.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.802.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.790.88
keeper form v10.760.65
league points27.0011.00
league rank5.0017.00
matches since blank6.004.00
matches since clean sheet6.0014.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.8074.20
possession avg (last 5)47.6044.40
rest days7.966.00
scorer concentration0.290.23
season ppg1.590.65
skill v1-0.24-0.63
sot against avg (last 5)6.405.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.80
state index-0.16-0.64
sterile dominance v1-0.16-0.73
threat rate (last 10)0.240.28
threat rate (last 3)0.220.32
threat rate (last 5)0.230.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.40