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Konyaspor 2–1 Rizespor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, Jan 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Halis Ozkahya, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor win48%2.04
Draw30%3.24
Rizespor win22%4.41

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Deni Milošević · Konyaspor
6'🟨Barry Douglas · Konyaspor
35'⚽Recep Niyaz · Rizespor
37'🟨Jagoš Vuković · Konyaspor
40'🟨Marwane Saadane · Rizespor
54'🟨Riad Bajić · Konyaspor
59'⚽Riad Bajić · Konyaspor
75'🟨Ali Çamdalı · Konyaspor
90'🟨Bright Edomwonyi · Rizespor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKonyasporRizespor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.210.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.41
box share (last 5)0.590.66
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days843.00782.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.342.91
elo1481.43
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKonya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu
1452.20
elo momentum (last 5)-20.51-1.72
eye test v1-1.390.28
eye trend v1-0.18-0.16
first sub minute (last 10)49.5055.70
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.200.97
keeper form v10.760.67
league points24.0016.00
league rank8.0015.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.0014.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.8071.20
possession avg (last 5)41.6047.00
rest days6.887.10
scorer concentration0.470.31
season ppg1.410.94
skill v1-1.40-0.77
sot against avg (last 5)5.405.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.804.60
sot for avg (last 3)1.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.005.20
state index-0.39-0.17
sterile dominance v1-0.38-0.75
threat rate (last 10)0.190.29
threat rate (last 3)0.180.25
threat rate (last 5)0.170.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.40