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Fenerbahce 2–2 Adana Demirspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Jan 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Serkan Cinar, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win83%1.18
Draw12%8.35
Adana Demirspor win6%17.50

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'⚽Magaye Gueye · Adana Demirspor
31'🟨Renan Foguinho · Adana Demirspor
40'⚽Mehmet Topal · Fenerbahce
45'⚽Roni · Adana Demirspor
67'🟨Mauricio Ramos · Adana Demirspor
73'🟨Bekir Yilmaz · Adana Demirspor
78'🟨Vladimir Koman · Adana Demirspor
78'⚽ (pen)Fernandão · Fenerbahce
80'🟨Digão · Adana Demirspor
87'🟨Şener Özbayraklı · Fenerbahce
87'🟨Didi · Adana Demirspor
90'🟨Charles Itandje · Adana Demirspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFenerbahceAdana Demirspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.470.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.38
box share (last 5)0.720.51
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days167.0045.00
congestion 21d1.000.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.543.08
elo1645.65
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueŞükrü Saracoğlu Stadı
1425.84
elo momentum (last 5)21.67-22.92
eye test v1-0.150.32
eye trend v1-0.260.26
first sub minute (last 10)57.6057.40
form points (last 5)10.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.520.79
keeper form v10.860.66
league points31.0010.00
league rank4.0018.00
matches since blank2.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.0013.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.8075.60
possession avg (last 5)49.4046.20
rest days19.9622.13
scorer concentration0.240.18
season ppg1.940.63
skill v1-0.11-0.36
sot against avg (last 5)5.405.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.704.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.205.00
state index1.04-0.74
sterile dominance v10.23-0.68
threat rate (last 10)0.200.28
threat rate (last 3)0.190.31
threat rate (last 5)0.190.29
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.20