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Alanyaspor 2–3 Rizespor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, Jan 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Volkan Bayarslan, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor win44%2.20
Rizespor win29%3.38
Draw27%3.64

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Leonard Kweuke · Rizespor
27'🟨Kenneth Omeruo · Alanyaspor
34'⚽Dhurgham Ismail · Rizespor
61'⚽Leonard Kweuke · Rizespor
71'⚽Vagner Love · Alanyaspor
75'🟥Daniel Candeias · Alanyaspor
81'🟨Gökhan Akkan · Rizespor
90'⚽Glynor Plet · Alanyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlanyasporRizespor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.39
box share (last 5)0.590.63
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days775.00775.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.492.96
elo1467.67
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAlanya Oba Stadyumu
1439.72
elo momentum (last 5)8.38-28.65
eye test v10.200.29
eye trend v1-0.22-0.04
first sub minute (last 10)61.4060.30
form points (last 5)7.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.350.79
keeper form v10.570.65
league points18.0013.00
league rank13.0015.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.0013.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.0076.00
possession avg (last 5)46.2048.80
rest days19.7720.00
scorer concentration0.220.23
season ppg1.130.81
skill v1-0.63-0.13
sot against avg (last 5)3.405.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.104.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.805.00
state index-0.10-0.69
sterile dominance v1-0.74-0.33
threat rate (last 10)0.260.28
threat rate (last 3)0.240.27
threat rate (last 5)0.280.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.00