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Alanyaspor 2–3 Rizespor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, Jan 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Volkan Bayarslan, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor win44%2.20
Rizespor win29%3.38
Draw27%3.64

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Leonard Kweuke · Rizespor
27'🟨Kenneth Omeruo · Alanyaspor
34'⚽Dhurgham Ismail · Rizespor
61'⚽Leonard Kweuke · Rizespor
71'⚽Vagner Love · Alanyaspor
75'🟥Daniel Candeias · Alanyaspor
81'🟨Gökhan Akkan · Rizespor
90'⚽Glynor Plet · Alanyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlanyasporRizespor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.39
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.00
box share (last 5)0.590.63
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days13.00775.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAlanya Oba Stadyumu
2.00
1.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.000.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.206.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.206.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.492.96
elo1472.911452.82
elo momentum (last 5)-5.65-21.40
eye test v10.200.29
eye trend v1-0.22-0.04
first sub minute (last 10)61.4060.30
form points (last 5)4.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.270.82
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.60
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.15
keeper form v10.570.65
league points18.0013.00
league rank15.0018.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.0016.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.0076.00
possession avg (last 5)46.2048.80
rest days19.9620.00
scorer concentration0.220.23
season ppg0.950.68
skill v1-0.63-0.13
sot against avg (last 5)3.405.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.104.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.805.00
squad age28.1626.04
state index-0.52-0.51
sterile dominance v1-0.74-0.33
threat rate (last 10)0.260.28
threat rate (last 3)0.240.27
threat rate (last 5)0.280.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80