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Kayserispor 2–0 Kardemir Karabukspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Dec 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Halil Umut Meler, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor win43%2.28
Draw30%3.29
Kardemir Karabukspor win28%3.55

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'🟥Dany Nounkeu · Kardemir Karabukspor
17'⚽ (pen)Deniz Türüç · Kayserispor
36'🟨Deniz Türüç · Kayserispor
44'🟨Ceyhun Gülselam · Kardemir Karabukspor
59'🟨Larrys Mabiala · Kayserispor
59'🟨Barış Başdaş · Kardemir Karabukspor
84'⚽Welliton · Kayserispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporKardemir Karabukspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.250.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.39
box share (last 5)0.520.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days543.00177.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.751.72
elo
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKadir Has Stadium
1407.38
1472.60
elo momentum (last 5)-55.61-13.75
eye test v1-0.860.51
eye trend v10.34-0.00
first sub minute (last 10)55.7053.60
form points (last 5)0.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.60-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.711.32
keeper form v10.540.56
league points9.0018.00
league rank18.0014.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet15.003.00
matches since win7.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.6076.60
possession avg (last 5)55.2056.40
rest days7.007.10
scorer concentration0.450.33
season ppg0.601.20
skill v10.380.47
sot against avg (last 5)4.803.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.304.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.405.40
state index-1.48-0.52
sterile dominance v10.660.22
threat rate (last 10)0.200.25
threat rate (last 3)0.220.26
threat rate (last 5)0.180.25
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.80