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Akhisarspor 1–0 Konyaspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Dec 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Umit Ozturk, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Akhisarspor win36%2.71
Draw33%2.97
Konyaspor win31%3.13

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'🟨Orhan Taşdelen · Akhisarspor
34'🟨Amir Hadžiahmetović · Konyaspor
44'🟨Abdoul Sissoko · Akhisarspor
82'⚽Ricardo Vaz Tê · Akhisarspor
83'🟨Ricardo Vaz Tê · Akhisarspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAkhisarsporKonyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.32
box share (last 5)0.660.50
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days115.00816.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.851.16
elo1477.03
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueManisa 19 Mayis
1499.59
elo momentum (last 5)16.199.04
eye test v1-0.79-1.02
eye trend v10.010.04
first sub minute (last 10)52.9048.60
form points (last 5)8.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.671.14
keeper form v10.730.69
league points17.0024.00
league rank14.007.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.0070.40
possession avg (last 5)43.6042.80
rest days6.887.10
scorer concentration0.400.47
season ppg1.131.60
skill v1-1.25-1.16
sot against avg (last 5)3.206.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.203.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.002.60
state index-0.07-0.01
sterile dominance v1-0.86-0.40
threat rate (last 10)0.240.18
threat rate (last 3)0.230.17
threat rate (last 5)0.250.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.40