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Rizespor 0–1 Osmanlispor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Dec 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Cuneyt Cakir, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Osmanlispor win46%2.11
Draw28%3.45
Rizespor win25%3.86

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'🟨Robin Yalçın · Rizespor
22'🟨Musa Çağıran · Osmanlispor
45'🟨Oğulcan Çağlayan · Rizespor
75'🟨Patryk Tuszyński · Rizespor
90'⚽ (pen)Musa Çağıran · Osmanlispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRizesporOsmanlispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.34
box share (last 5)0.530.49
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days755.003160.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.922.87
elo1447.66
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÇaykur Didi Stadyumu
1580.02
elo momentum (last 5)-26.1323.69
eye test v10.450.58
eye trend v10.440.04
first sub minute (last 10)64.7067.10
form points (last 5)3.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.200.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.790.52
keeper form v10.640.68
league points13.0023.00
league rank15.007.00
matches since blank1.0012.00
matches since clean sheet12.002.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.4075.20
possession avg (last 5)46.2049.40
rest days7.006.77
scorer concentration0.230.18
season ppg0.871.53
skill v1-0.60-0.18
sot against avg (last 5)5.003.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.305.30
sot for avg (last 3)6.336.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.405.40
state index-0.720.40
sterile dominance v1-0.84-0.81
threat rate (last 10)0.280.29
threat rate (last 3)0.290.33
threat rate (last 5)0.300.33
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.40