⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Bursaspor 2–1 Antalyaspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Mon, Dec 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ali Palabiyik, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bursaspor win44%2.23
Antalyaspor win29%3.42
Draw28%3.52

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'🟨Ertuğrul Ersoy · Bursaspor
16'🟨Danilo · Antalyaspor
20'⚽Kubilay Kanatsızkuş · Bursaspor
32'⚽Pablo Batalla · Bursaspor
37'🟨Zeki Yildirim · Antalyaspor
41'⚽Deniz Kadah · Antalyaspor
44'🟨Erdem Özgenç · Bursaspor
45'🟨Charles · Antalyaspor
53'🟨Mbilla Etame · Antalyaspor
59'🟨Sakıb Aytaç · Antalyaspor
69'🟨Pablo Batalla · Bursaspor
81'🟨Rıdvan Şimşek · Antalyaspor
88'🟨Deniz Yilmaz · Bursaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBursasporAntalyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.33
box share (last 5)0.630.65
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days384.0079.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.692.50
elo1524.62
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu
1502.54
elo momentum (last 5)-16.7145.94
eye test v1-0.370.23
eye trend v10.190.31
first sub minute (last 10)51.5060.90
form points (last 5)5.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.57
keeper form v10.840.67
league points24.0019.00
league rank5.009.00
matches since blank3.006.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.4069.20
possession avg (last 5)46.4044.60
rest days9.047.00
scorer concentration0.290.30
season ppg1.711.36
skill v1-0.17-1.16
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.204.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.405.00
state index-0.050.47
sterile dominance v1-0.18-1.37
threat rate (last 10)0.230.27
threat rate (last 3)0.250.32
threat rate (last 5)0.230.33
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.40