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Alanyaspor 0–0 Akhisarspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Dec 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Yasar Kemal Ugurlu, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor win42%2.33
Akhisarspor win29%3.32
Draw29%3.40

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'🟨Carlos García · Alanyaspor
55'🟨Nuru Suley · Alanyaspor
58'🟨Ömer Bayram · Akhisarspor
81'🟨Muğdat Çelik · Akhisarspor
83'🟨Vagner Love · Alanyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlanyasporAkhisarspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.28
box share (last 5)0.650.57
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days748.00108.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.562.77
elo1480.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAlanya Oba Stadyumu
1475.16
elo momentum (last 5)21.871.19
eye test v10.40-0.45
eye trend v10.050.31
first sub minute (last 10)61.3050.00
form points (last 5)9.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.350.67
keeper form v10.580.70
league points17.0016.00
league rank13.0014.00
matches since blank3.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.0071.00
possession avg (last 5)50.4043.40
rest days7.237.13
scorer concentration0.240.40
season ppg1.211.14
skill v10.29-1.06
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.403.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.40
state index0.15-0.20
sterile dominance v1-0.21-1.02
threat rate (last 10)0.260.24
threat rate (last 3)0.300.29
threat rate (last 5)0.280.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.20