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Adana Demirspor 2–1 Kayserispor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Dec 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Cuneyt Cakir, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor win43%2.27
Draw29%3.33
Adana Demirspor win28%3.51

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'🟨Bekir Yilmaz · Adana Demirspor
40'🟨Ousmane Viera · Adana Demirspor
41'⚽Deniz Türüç · Kayserispor
63'🟨Levent Gülen · Kayserispor
74'🟨Roni · Adana Demirspor
77'⚽Ahmet Dereli · Adana Demirspor
90'⚽Cem Özdemir · Adana Demirspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAdana DemirsporKayserispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.19
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.26
box share (last 5)0.510.54
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days17.00536.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.311.64
elo
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venue5 Ocak
1414.43
1415.71
elo momentum (last 5)-40.33-42.90
eye test v10.09-1.03
eye trend v1-0.070.14
first sub minute (last 10)60.2054.50
form points (last 5)1.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.40-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.030.84
keeper form v10.660.48
league points6.009.00
league rank18.0017.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet11.0014.00
matches since win9.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.6073.40
possession avg (last 5)46.0052.00
rest days8.836.88
scorer concentration0.250.50
season ppg0.430.64
skill v1-0.28-0.19
sot against avg (last 5)6.204.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.102.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.002.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.602.20
state index-1.35-1.20
sterile dominance v1-0.330.36
threat rate (last 10)0.260.19
threat rate (last 3)0.230.21
threat rate (last 5)0.240.18
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.80