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Gaziantep 1–2 Rizespor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Dec 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bulent Yildirim, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rizespor win37%2.64
Gaziantep win33%2.94
Draw30%3.27

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽Leonard Kweuke · Rizespor
28'🟨Leonard Kweuke · Rizespor
32'⚽Bart van Hintum · Gaziantep
55'🟨Özgür Çek · Rizespor
68'🟨Marwane Saadane · Rizespor
69'⚽Marwane Saadane · Rizespor
75'🟨Elyasa Süme · Gaziantep
77'🟨Evans Kangwa · Gaziantep
77'🟨Patryk Tuszyński · Rizespor
86'🟨Mehmet Akyüz · Rizespor
88'🟨Godfrey Oboabona · Rizespor
90'🟨Nabil Ghilas · Gaziantep
90'🟨Godfrey Oboabona · Rizespor
90'🟥Godfrey Oboabona · Rizespor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGaziantepRizespor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.36
box share (last 5)0.640.54
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days170.00748.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.753.08
elo1433.24
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGaziantep Kamil Ocak Stadium
1436.03
elo momentum (last 5)-60.55-40.06
eye test v1-1.060.47
eye trend v1-0.160.32
first sub minute (last 10)49.3064.20
form points (last 5)0.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.80-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.802.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.250.74
keeper form v10.710.59
league points11.0010.00
league rank15.0016.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet7.0011.00
matches since win5.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.8077.40
possession avg (last 5)43.4048.60
rest days6.777.90
scorer concentration0.300.27
season ppg0.790.71
skill v1-0.98-0.01
sot against avg (last 5)7.805.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.304.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.006.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.405.20
state index-1.23-1.23
sterile dominance v1-0.32-0.55
threat rate (last 10)0.210.27
threat rate (last 3)0.160.29
threat rate (last 5)0.190.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.40