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Akhisarspor 1–2 Osmanlispor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Dec 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alper Ulusoy, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Osmanlispor win40%2.44
Draw31%3.18
Akhisarspor win29%3.33

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'🟨Soner Aydoğdu · Akhisarspor
33'⚽ (og)Serdar Kesimal · Osmanlispor
44'🟨Abdoul Sissoko · Akhisarspor
51'⚽Ricardo Vaz Tê · Akhisarspor
55'🟨Musa Çağıran · Osmanlispor
64'🟨Onur Ayık · Akhisarspor
77'🟨Mehmet Güven · Osmanlispor
78'🟨Bora Körk · Akhisarspor
81'🟨Tiago Pinto · Osmanlispor
85'⚽Aminu Umar · Osmanlispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAkhisarsporOsmanlispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.34
box share (last 5)0.510.53
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days101.003146.00
congestion 21d2.004.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.553.48
elo1484.34
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueManisa 19 Mayis
1573.07
elo momentum (last 5)-1.3715.28
eye test v1-0.540.17
eye trend v10.12-0.11
first sub minute (last 10)51.8060.80
form points (last 5)7.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.700.53
keeper form v1—0.74
league points16.0019.00
league rank12.008.00
matches since blank2.0010.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.2074.80
possession avg (last 5)44.2047.00
rest days7.002.88
scorer concentration0.440.21
season ppg1.231.46
skill v1-0.89-0.41
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.205.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.60
state index-0.210.30
sterile dominance v1-0.79-0.73
threat rate (last 10)0.240.28
threat rate (last 3)0.250.33
threat rate (last 5)0.260.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.00