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Kardemir Karabukspor 0–2 Alanyaspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Dec 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mete Kalkavan, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kardemir Karabukspor win51%1.92
Draw26%3.81
Alanyaspor win24%4.14

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

33'⚽ (pen)Vagner Love · Alanyaspor
45'🟨Kenneth Omeruo · Alanyaspor
55'🟨Berkan Emir · Alanyaspor
65'🟨Ermin Zec · Kardemir Karabukspor
66'⚽Vagner Love · Alanyaspor
67'🟨Vagner Love · Alanyaspor
81'🟨Elvis Kokalović · Kardemir Karabukspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKardemir KarabuksporAlanyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.470.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.35
box share (last 5)0.570.57
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days163.00741.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.522.84
elo
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueDr. Necmettin Şeyhoğlu Stadium
1492.42
1461.98
elo momentum (last 5)-7.84-5.01
eye test v10.190.74
eye trend v10.46-0.25
first sub minute (last 10)55.3058.30
form points (last 5)5.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.802.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.431.43
keeper form v1—0.53
league points17.0014.00
league rank10.0014.00
matches since blank3.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.2083.00
possession avg (last 5)53.6056.00
rest days6.907.00
scorer concentration0.350.25
season ppg1.311.08
skill v10.531.11
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.105.40
sot for avg (last 3)6.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.605.60
state index-0.23-0.39
sterile dominance v10.300.27
threat rate (last 10)0.230.26
threat rate (last 3)0.240.31
threat rate (last 5)0.240.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.40