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Besiktas 2–1 Bursaspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bulent Yildirim, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win66%1.48
Draw21%4.71
Bursaspor win13%7.33

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Sercan Yildirim · Bursaspor
-5'🟥Sercan Yildirim · Bursaspor
35'🟨Necip Uysal · Besiktas
38'🟨Merter Yüce · Bursaspor
45'🟨Marcelo · Besiktas
45'🟨Harun Tekin · Bursaspor
52'⚽ (pen)Cenk Tosun · Besiktas
65'⚽ (pen)Cenk Tosun · Besiktas
68'🟨Ertuğrul Ersoy · Bursaspor
90'🟨Adriano · Besiktas
90'⚽Emre Taşdemir · Bursaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBesiktasBursaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.27
box share (last 5)0.620.63
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days558.00375.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.352.51
elo1586.07
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVodafone Park
1531.43
elo momentum (last 5)15.350.87
eye test v10.51-0.56
eye trend v1-0.490.09
first sub minute (last 10)51.4051.90
form points (last 5)9.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.851.06
keeper form v10.800.85
league points29.0024.00
league rank2.005.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.2077.20
possession avg (last 5)60.0048.00
rest days7.004.96
scorer concentration0.210.31
season ppg2.231.85
skill v11.42-0.08
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)6.003.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.803.00
state index0.430.12
sterile dominance v11.07-0.10
threat rate (last 10)0.250.24
threat rate (last 3)0.140.24
threat rate (last 5)0.210.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.40