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Trabzonspor 4–1 Adana Demirspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Fri, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ozgur Yankaya, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win67%1.47
Draw21%4.72
Adana Demirspor win13%7.69

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

35'⚽Yusuf Erdoğan · Trabzonspor
38'🟨Ján Ďurica · Trabzonspor
40'⚽Renan Foguinho · Adana Demirspor
52'🟥Edgar Bruno Da Silva · Adana Demirspor
55'⚽ (pen)Mehmet Ekici · Trabzonspor
66'🟨Bekir Yilmaz · Adana Demirspor
68'🟨Zeki Yavru · Trabzonspor
70'⚽Yusuf Erdoğan · Trabzonspor
72'🟨Vladimir Koman · Adana Demirspor
74'⚽Mehmet Ekici · Trabzonspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTrabzonsporAdana Demirspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.38
box share (last 5)0.540.41
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days343.008.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.732.32
elo1475.15
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHüseyin Avni Aker Stadium
1426.63
elo momentum (last 5)-5.77-37.50
eye test v10.440.17
eye trend v10.010.16
first sub minute (last 10)59.9060.60
form points (last 5)5.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.701.06
keeper form v10.680.72
league points15.006.00
league rank12.0018.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.0010.00
matches since win0.008.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8077.40
possession avg (last 5)56.0044.40
rest days4.005.04
scorer concentration0.290.29
season ppg1.150.46
skill v10.76-0.33
sot against avg (last 5)3.605.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.803.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.60
state index-0.29-1.29
sterile dominance v10.09-0.63
threat rate (last 10)0.270.27
threat rate (last 3)0.320.26
threat rate (last 5)0.290.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.20