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Bursaspor 2–1 Rizespor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Mon, Dec 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Umit Ozturk, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bursaspor win59%1.64
Draw24%4.12
Rizespor win17%5.78

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'🟨Dhurgham Ismail · Rizespor
54'🟨Davide Petrucci · Rizespor
56'🟨Aziz Behich · Bursaspor
63'⚽Deniz Yilmaz · Bursaspor
68'⚽Deniz Yilmaz · Bursaspor
78'🟨Mohamed Ali Yaakoubi · Rizespor
85'🟨Tomáš Sivok · Bursaspor
87'⚽Recep Niyaz · Rizespor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBursasporRizespor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.33
box share (last 5)0.630.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days370.00735.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.492.00
elo1525.04
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu
1453.92
elo momentum (last 5)10.72-10.52
eye test v1-0.30-0.17
eye trend v1-0.050.31
first sub minute (last 10)53.3063.00
form points (last 5)8.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.602.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.030.74
keeper form v10.850.63
league points21.0010.00
league rank5.0016.00
matches since blank1.006.00
matches since clean sheet1.009.00
matches since win3.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.6072.40
possession avg (last 5)46.8042.00
rest days10.008.04
scorer concentration0.360.30
season ppg1.750.83
skill v1-0.24-1.04
sot against avg (last 5)4.005.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.503.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.00
state index0.20-0.71
sterile dominance v1-0.33-1.14
threat rate (last 10)0.240.27
threat rate (last 3)0.220.29
threat rate (last 5)0.250.29
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.40