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Adana Demirspor 0–2 Genclerbirligi

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Dec 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Arda Kardesler, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genclerbirligi win47%2.10
Draw28%3.43
Adana Demirspor win25%3.91

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'🟨Renan Diniz · Adana Demirspor
36'🟨Mauricio Ramos · Adana Demirspor
37'⚽ (pen)Serdar Gürler · Genclerbirligi
39'🟨Vedat Muriqi · Genclerbirligi
40'🟨Magaye Gueye · Adana Demirspor
44'🟨Renan Foguinho · Adana Demirspor
66'🟨Abdulrahman Khalili · Genclerbirligi
72'🟨Serdar Gürler · Genclerbirligi
73'⚽Tokelo Rantie · Genclerbirligi

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAdana DemirsporGenclerbirligi
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.33
box share (last 5)0.460.50
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days3.0033.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.251.51
elo
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venue5 Ocak
1441.27
1509.61
elo momentum (last 5)-31.00-6.29
eye test v10.17-0.35
eye trend v10.360.05
first sub minute (last 10)60.9056.20
form points (last 5)1.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.060.82
keeper form v10.750.82
league points6.0015.00
league rank18.0011.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet9.000.00
matches since win7.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.4073.40
possession avg (last 5)46.0048.00
rest days8.007.13
scorer concentration0.290.40
season ppg0.501.25
skill v1-0.11-0.50
sot against avg (last 5)5.604.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.103.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.80
state index-0.97-0.15
sterile dominance v1-0.57-0.29
threat rate (last 10)0.270.22
threat rate (last 3)0.270.22
threat rate (last 5)0.290.23
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.00