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Gaziantep 1–2 Akhisarspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Dec 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ozgur Yankaya, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gaziantep win37%2.61
Draw32%3.07
Akhisarspor win31%3.16

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'🟨Tolga Ünlü · Akhisarspor
22'🟨Abdoul Sissoko · Akhisarspor
37'⚽Musa Nizam · Gaziantep
52'🟨Serdar Kesimal · Akhisarspor
70'🟨Özer Hurmacı · Akhisarspor
79'⚽Özer Hurmacı · Akhisarspor
82'🟨Abdulkadir Kayali · Gaziantep
87'⚽Muğdat Çelik · Akhisarspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGaziantepAkhisarspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.29
box share (last 5)0.660.51
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days156.0094.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.992.55
elo1452.41
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGaziantep Kamil Ocak Stadium
1473.21
elo momentum (last 5)-37.81-4.35
eye test v1-0.76-0.66
eye trend v1-0.06-0.00
first sub minute (last 10)49.5050.30
form points (last 5)3.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.370.52
keeper form v10.68—
league points11.0013.00
league rank15.0012.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.8071.20
possession avg (last 5)46.0041.00
rest days8.108.00
scorer concentration0.380.57
season ppg0.921.08
skill v1-1.15-1.25
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.203.00
state index-0.78-0.40
sterile dominance v1-0.43-1.05
threat rate (last 10)0.240.24
threat rate (last 3)0.200.28
threat rate (last 5)0.210.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.60