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Alanyaspor 2–3 Konyaspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Dec 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ali Palabiyik, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor win36%2.73
Alanyaspor win34%2.83
Draw30%3.28

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'⚽ (og)Berkan Emir · Konyaspor
30'🟨Riad Bajić · Konyaspor
35'🟨Isaac Sackey · Alanyaspor
38'🟨Riad Bajić · Konyaspor
38'🟥Riad Bajić · Konyaspor
38'⚽Riad Bajić · Konyaspor
56'⚽Taha Yalçıner · Alanyaspor
59'⚽Vagner Love · Alanyaspor
60'🟨Daniel Candeias · Alanyaspor
60'🟨Ali Çamdalı · Konyaspor
70'🟨Emre Akbaba · Alanyaspor
84'🟨Alban Meha · Konyaspor
90'🟨Wilde-Donald Guerrier · Alanyaspor
90'⚽ (pen)Jagoš Vuković · Konyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlanyasporKonyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.36
box share (last 5)0.510.51
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days734.00795.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.572.22
elo1473.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAlanya Oba Stadyumu
1490.71
elo momentum (last 5)-10.0411.82
eye test v10.57-0.43
eye trend v1-0.170.16
first sub minute (last 10)61.6047.80
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.510.94
keeper form v10.570.58
league points14.0017.00
league rank11.006.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.4079.40
possession avg (last 5)55.8048.40
rest days8.735.73
scorer concentration0.290.50
season ppg1.171.42
skill v11.130.17
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.703.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.203.40
state index-0.15-0.26
sterile dominance v10.390.34
threat rate (last 10)0.240.17
threat rate (last 3)0.270.19
threat rate (last 5)0.270.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80