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Konyaspor 1–1 Osmanlispor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Mon, Nov 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ozgur Yankaya, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Draw35%2.77
Osmanlispor win34%2.85
Konyaspor win31%3.15

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽Adrien Regattin · Osmanlispor
56'🟨Mehmet Güven · Osmanlispor
80'🟨Deni Milošević · Konyaspor
83'🟨Zydrunas Karcemarskas · Osmanlispor
88'⚽Riad Bajić · Konyaspor
90'🟨Raheem Lawal · Osmanlispor
90'🟨Mehmet Güven · Osmanlispor
90'🟥Mehmet Güven · Osmanlispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKonyasporOsmanlispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.470.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.44
box share (last 5)0.520.54
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days789.003133.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.223.61
elo1490.55
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKonya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu
1556.33
elo momentum (last 5)0.89-7.99
eye test v1-0.330.38
eye trend v10.36-0.08
first sub minute (last 10)46.1054.70
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.63
keeper form v10.520.78
league points16.0015.00
league rank7.0010.00
matches since blank0.007.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.4076.40
possession avg (last 5)50.2050.60
rest days3.963.96
scorer concentration0.460.27
season ppg1.451.36
skill v10.29-0.00
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.305.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.605.20
state index-0.19-0.05
sterile dominance v10.53-0.09
threat rate (last 10)0.160.26
threat rate (last 3)0.190.24
threat rate (last 5)0.180.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80