⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Rizespor 1–5 Fenerbahce

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Nov 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ali Palabiyik, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win62%1.56
Draw23%4.15
Rizespor win14%6.85

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟨Simon Kjær · Fenerbahce
17'⚽Mohamed Ali Yaakoubi · Rizespor
21'🟨Moussa Sow · Fenerbahce
27'⚽Moussa Sow · Fenerbahce
32'⚽Moussa Sow · Fenerbahce
43'🟨Dhurgham Ismail · Rizespor
45'🟨Ahmet İlhan Özek · Rizespor
45'⚽Moussa Sow · Fenerbahce
66'⚽Aatif Chahechouhe · Fenerbahce
72'🟥Jakob Jantscher · Rizespor
84'🟨Robin van Persie · Fenerbahce
90'⚽İsmail Köybaşı · Fenerbahce

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score3

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRizesporFenerbahce
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.43
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.52
box share (last 5)0.550.77
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days727.00118.00
congestion 21d1.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.083.43
elo1468.36
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÇaykur Didi Stadyumu
1609.53
elo momentum (last 5)5.4257.36
eye test v1-0.210.33
eye trend v10.33-0.12
first sub minute (last 10)59.8059.20
form points (last 5)6.0015.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.002.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.29
keeper form v10.690.68
league points10.0021.00
league rank16.005.00
matches since blank5.0013.00
matches since clean sheet8.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.4076.40
possession avg (last 5)41.2045.60
rest days6.003.00
scorer concentration0.330.21
season ppg0.911.91
skill v1-1.22-0.36
sot against avg (last 5)5.201.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.104.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.005.20
state index-0.131.20
sterile dominance v1-1.24-0.22
threat rate (last 10)0.260.22
threat rate (last 3)0.290.18
threat rate (last 5)0.290.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.602.00