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Genclerbirligi 0–0 Trabzonspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Nov 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Firat Aydinus, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genclerbirligi win50%1.96
Draw27%3.58
Trabzonspor win23%4.22

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-3'🟨Aytaç Kara · Trabzonspor
17'🟨Ahmet Oğuz · Genclerbirligi
24'🟨Sergei Politevich · Genclerbirligi
28'🟥Uğur Çiftçi · Genclerbirligi
72'🟨Luis Ibáñez · Trabzonspor
74'🟨Güray Vural · Trabzonspor
82'🟨Zeki Yavru · Trabzonspor
87'🟨Yusuf Erdoğan · Trabzonspor
90'🟨Ogenyi Onazi · Trabzonspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGenclerbirligiTrabzonspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.34
box share (last 5)0.520.48
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days26.00331.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.402.67
elo1512.71
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAnkara 19 Mayıs Stadyumu
1461.23
elo momentum (last 5)-14.27-7.03
eye test v1-0.200.55
eye trend v1-0.120.24
first sub minute (last 10)56.3057.20
form points (last 5)4.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.71
keeper form v10.780.65
league points14.0011.00
league rank11.0014.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.6076.80
possession avg (last 5)49.8052.20
rest days7.085.83
scorer concentration0.400.33
season ppg1.271.00
skill v1-0.140.16
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.005.60
state index-0.04-0.44
sterile dominance v1-0.12-0.34
threat rate (last 10)0.220.26
threat rate (last 3)0.220.29
threat rate (last 5)0.240.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.60