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Alanyaspor 3–0 Kayserispor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Fri, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Umit Ozturk, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor win44%2.24
Kayserispor win29%3.40
Draw28%3.52

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'🟨Samba Sow · Kayserispor
33'🟨Emre Akbaba · Alanyaspor
46'🟨Murat Duruer · Kayserispor
48'⚽Isaac Sackey · Alanyaspor
73'🟨Taha Yalçıner · Alanyaspor
78'🟨Vagner Love · Alanyaspor
83'🟥Muammer Yıldırım · Kayserispor
87'⚽ (pen)Vagner Love · Alanyaspor
90'🟨Ufuk Budak · Kayserispor
90'🟨Ali Ahamada · Kayserispor
90'⚽ (pen)Emre Akbaba · Alanyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlanyasporKayserispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.28
box share (last 5)0.460.48
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days725.00513.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.561.51
elo1459.29
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAlanya Oba Stadyumu
1446.86
elo momentum (last 5)-20.27-20.93
eye test v10.68-1.24
eye trend v10.05-0.07
first sub minute (last 10)59.5056.60
form points (last 5)4.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.420.99
keeper form v10.550.69
league points11.009.00
league rank13.0017.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet7.0011.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.8066.80
possession avg (last 5)56.8042.80
rest days6.045.25
scorer concentration0.310.50
season ppg1.000.82
skill v11.36-1.63
sot against avg (last 5)4.006.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.602.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.402.20
state index-0.41-0.64
sterile dominance v10.74-0.70
threat rate (last 10)0.230.21
threat rate (last 3)0.240.19
threat rate (last 5)0.240.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.00