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Trabzonspor 0–1 Antalyaspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Mon, Nov 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alper Ulusoy, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win49%1.99
Draw27%3.64
Antalyaspor win24%4.04

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Chico · Antalyaspor
11'🟨Mehmet Ekici · Trabzonspor
17'🟨Dame N'Doye · Trabzonspor
30'🟨Sakıb Aytaç · Antalyaspor
45'🟨Ogenyi Onazi · Trabzonspor
47'🟨Mustafa Akbaş · Trabzonspor
47'🟨Onur Kıvrak · Trabzonspor
50'🟨Ján Ďurica · Trabzonspor
50'🟨Mustafa Yumlu · Trabzonspor
74'🟨Okay Yokuşlu · Trabzonspor
74'🟨Mbilla Etame · Antalyaspor
80'🟨Charles · Antalyaspor
90'🟨Ramon Motta · Antalyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTrabzonsporAntalyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.34
box share (last 5)0.540.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days325.0051.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.551.90
elo1473.13
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHüseyin Avni Aker Stadium
1466.31
elo momentum (last 5)-10.321.53
eye test v1-0.00-0.39
eye trend v1-0.270.18
first sub minute (last 10)57.3054.30
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.63
keeper form v10.670.59
league points11.009.00
league rank11.0017.00
matches since blank3.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.0073.20
possession avg (last 5)48.4044.40
rest days16.0416.04
scorer concentration0.330.50
season ppg1.100.90
skill v1-0.43-0.82
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.903.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.60
state index-0.32-0.34
sterile dominance v1-0.33-0.63
threat rate (last 10)0.250.25
threat rate (last 3)0.200.30
threat rate (last 5)0.240.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.60