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Kayserispor 0–2 Genclerbirligi

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Nov 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Volkan Bayarslan, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor win37%2.61
Genclerbirligi win31%3.10
Draw31%3.14

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

38'🟨Anil Karaer · Kayserispor
59'🟨Srđan Mijailović · Kayserispor
63'🟨Umut Sönmez · Kayserispor
75'⚽Cosmin Matei · Genclerbirligi
80'🟨Samba Sow · Kayserispor
80'⚽Serdar Gürler · Genclerbirligi
90'🟨Umut Bulut · Kayserispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporGenclerbirligi
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.28
box share (last 5)0.540.45
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days508.0019.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.651.40
elo1463.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKadir Has Stadium
1496.57
elo momentum (last 5)-18.68-30.13
eye test v1-1.26-0.51
eye trend v1-0.020.10
first sub minute (last 10)54.3056.80
form points (last 5)4.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.88
keeper form v10.730.78
league points9.0011.00
league rank16.0012.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet10.004.00
matches since win2.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.4074.40
possession avg (last 5)41.8048.60
rest days13.9214.79
scorer concentration0.500.38
season ppg0.901.10
skill v1-1.76-0.38
sot against avg (last 5)6.204.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.103.60
sot for avg (last 3)2.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.203.40
state index-0.56-0.66
sterile dominance v1-0.84-0.21
threat rate (last 10)0.210.23
threat rate (last 3)0.210.24
threat rate (last 5)0.210.23
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.60