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Adana Demirspor 1–2 Besiktas

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, Nov 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ali Palabiyik, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win70%1.40
Draw19%5.19
Adana Demirspor win11%8.57

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Vincent Aboubakar · Besiktas
17'⚽ (pen)Cenk Tosun · Besiktas
56'🟨Atınç Nukan · Besiktas
56'⚽ (pen)Magaye Gueye · Adana Demirspor
71'🟥Bekir Yilmaz · Adana Demirspor
78'🟨Gökhan Inler · Besiktas
90'🟨Atiba Hutchinson · Besiktas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAdana DemirsporBesiktas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.33
box share (last 5)0.530.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days49.00537.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.933.20
elo1457.06
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venue5 Ocak
1576.49
elo momentum (last 5)-34.7534.48
eye test v1-0.201.21
eye trend v10.170.13
first sub minute (last 10)60.1049.30
form points (last 5)1.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.801.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.030.99
keeper form v10.730.78
league points6.0024.00
league rank18.002.00
matches since blank1.0010.00
matches since clean sheet7.002.00
matches since win5.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.4084.60
possession avg (last 5)48.8063.60
rest days13.2314.00
scorer concentration0.290.24
season ppg0.602.40
skill v1-0.041.84
sot against avg (last 5)5.002.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.006.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.337.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.606.40
state index-0.870.85
sterile dominance v1-0.360.60
threat rate (last 10)0.260.26
threat rate (last 3)0.290.33
threat rate (last 5)0.270.31
venue ppg (last 5)0.802.20