⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Akhisarspor 1–3 Fenerbahce

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Nov 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Halil Umut Meler, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win62%1.57
Draw24%4.13
Akhisarspor win14%6.90

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'⚽Robin van Persie · Fenerbahce
31'🟨Mehmet Topal · Fenerbahce
47'🟨Volkan Şen · Fenerbahce
65'⚽Aatif Chahechouhe · Fenerbahce
66'🟨Jeremain Lens · Fenerbahce
73'🟨Serdar Kesimal · Akhisarspor
77'⚽ (og)Fatih Öztürk · Fenerbahce
78'🟨Aatif Chahechouhe · Fenerbahce
87'🟨Abdoul Sissoko · Akhisarspor
90'⚽Hugo Rodallega · Akhisarspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAkhisarsporFenerbahce
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.470.57
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.51
box share (last 5)0.580.64
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days66.0097.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
corners volatility (last 10)—3.26
elo1473.97
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueManisa 19 Mayis
1577.47
elo momentum (last 5)-0.9123.92
eye test v1-0.610.17
eye trend v10.170.39
first sub minute (last 10)50.5658.50
form points (last 5)6.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.402.00
goals volatility (last 10)—1.63
keeper form v10.740.67
league points9.0015.00
league rank16.005.00
matches since blank2.0010.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.8076.80
possession avg (last 5)44.6041.40
rest days7.232.92
scorer concentration0.600.13
season ppg1.001.67
skill v1-1.08-0.66
sot against avg (last 5)5.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.564.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.006.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.405.00
state index-0.340.47
sterile dominance v1-0.45-0.50
threat rate (last 10)0.220.25
threat rate (last 3)0.220.25
threat rate (last 5)0.210.23
venue ppg (last 5)—1.60