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Osmanlispor 1–1 Kayserispor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Nov 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Serkan Cinar, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Osmanlispor win54%1.79
Draw26%3.77
Kayserispor win20%4.96

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Welliton · Kayserispor
26'🟨Samba Sow · Kayserispor
31'🟨Anil Karaer · Kayserispor
38'🟨Tiago Pinto · Osmanlispor
51'🟨Levent Gülen · Kayserispor
58'⚽Préjuce Nakoulma · Kayserispor
75'🟨Numan Çürüksu · Osmanlispor
75'🟨Muhammed Bayir · Osmanlispor
75'🟨Préjuce Nakoulma · Kayserispor
75'🟨Kubilay Sönmez · Kayserispor
90'🟨Jean-Armel Kana-Biyik · Kayserispor
90'⚽Mehmet Güven · Osmanlispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOsmanlisporKayserispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.29
box share (last 5)0.490.52
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days3111.00494.00
congestion 21d4.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.54—
elo1562.18
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOsmanlı Stadyumu
1458.61
elo momentum (last 5)-16.87-14.55
eye test v10.84-1.22
eye trend v10.29-0.08
first sub minute (last 10)56.7055.22
form points (last 5)5.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.67—
keeper form v10.640.72
league points11.008.00
league rank12.0017.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.009.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.8067.40
possession avg (last 5)51.0042.00
rest days2.705.83
scorer concentration0.380.56
season ppg1.220.89
skill v1-0.05-1.65
sot against avg (last 5)4.206.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.603.11
sot for avg (last 3)5.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.202.20
state index-0.08-0.42
sterile dominance v1-0.51-0.75
threat rate (last 10)0.250.22
threat rate (last 3)0.280.24
threat rate (last 5)0.300.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.60—