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Rizespor 2–2 Adana Demirspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Nov 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alper Ulusoy, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rizespor win58%1.68
Draw25%3.97
Adana Demirspor win17%5.68

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'🟨Leonard Kweuke · Rizespor
24'⚽Roni · Adana Demirspor
44'🟨Ousmane Viera · Adana Demirspor
45'⚽Jakob Jantscher · Rizespor
71'⚽Robin Yalçın · Rizespor
85'⚽Roni · Adana Demirspor
90'🟨Ümit Kurt · Rizespor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRizesporAdana Demirspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.240.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.22
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.510.52
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days706.0036.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÇaykur Didi Stadyumu
3.00
3.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.80-4.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.206.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.402.60
elo1493.451365.87
elo momentum (last 5)5.16-25.37
eye test v1-0.52-0.21
eye trend v10.45-0.15
first sub minute (last 10)57.1159.44
form points (last 5)5.000.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.790.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
keeper form v10.710.76
league points9.006.00
league rank17.0021.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet7.007.00
matches since win1.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.4077.40
possession avg (last 5)42.6048.20
rest days7.007.96
scorer concentration0.330.40
season ppg0.900.55
skill v1-0.94-0.08
sot against avg (last 5)4.405.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.003.67
sot for avg (last 3)4.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.60
squad age25.7425.38
state index-0.01-1.22
sterile dominance v1-0.72-0.45
threat rate (last 10)0.260.26
threat rate (last 3)0.280.27
threat rate (last 5)0.240.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.40