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Antalyaspor 1–0 Genclerbirligi

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Umit Ozturk, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor win36%2.72
Genclerbirligi win32%3.02
Draw32%3.06

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'🟨Ahmet Oğuz · Genclerbirligi
32'🟨Ante Kulušić · Genclerbirligi
41'⚽ (pen)Samuel Eto'o · Antalyaspor
44'🟨Aydin Karabulut · Genclerbirligi
55'🟨Selçuk Şahin · Genclerbirligi
73'🟨Uğur Çiftçi · Genclerbirligi
77'🟨Diego Angelo · Antalyaspor
82'🟨Marko Milinkovic · Genclerbirligi
89'🟨Serdar Özkan · Antalyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntalyasporGenclerbirligi
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.34
box share (last 5)0.600.47
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days35.004.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1456.601506.28
elo momentum (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAntalya Stadyumu
-9.64
-8.52
eye test v1-0.51-0.21
eye trend v1-0.020.30
first sub minute (last 10)52.8958.00
form points (last 5)5.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.80
keeper form v10.570.79
league points6.0011.00
league rank17.0010.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.6075.80
possession avg (last 5)45.6050.60
rest days4.967.96
scorer concentration0.500.38
season ppg0.671.22
skill v1-0.59-0.09
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.673.89
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.00
state index-0.46-0.33
sterile dominance v1-0.280.02
threat rate (last 10)0.230.23
threat rate (last 3)0.220.26
threat rate (last 5)0.220.22