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Alanyaspor 4–3 Gaziantep

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Volkan Bayarslan, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor win45%2.17
Draw31%3.17
Gaziantep win24%4.04

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Emre Akbaba · Alanyaspor
12'⚽ (og)Kenneth Omeruo · Gaziantep
26'🟨Sergei Kislyak · Gaziantep
40'⚽Evans Kangwa · Gaziantep
44'🟨Abdulkadir Kayali · Gaziantep
54'⚽Daniel Candeias · Alanyaspor
61'🟨Muhammed Ildiz · Gaziantep
66'🟨Anton Putsila · Gaziantep
69'⚽Wilde-Donald Guerrier · Alanyaspor
70'🟨Wilde-Donald Guerrier · Alanyaspor
75'🟨Vagner Love · Alanyaspor
81'🟨Isaac Sackey · Alanyaspor
89'⚽Vagner Love · Alanyaspor
90'🟨Jonathan Ayite · Alanyaspor
90'🟨Bart van Hintum · Gaziantep
90'⚽ (pen)İlhan Parlak · Gaziantep

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlanyasporGaziantep
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.520.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.470.33
box share (last 5)0.470.49
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days705.00127.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1458.931493.79
elo momentum (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAlanya Oba Stadyumu
-51.67
6.92
eye test v10.77-0.35
eye trend v10.23-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)58.5656.89
form points (last 5)1.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.800.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.60
keeper form v10.620.64
league points8.0011.00
league rank15.0010.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet5.002.00
matches since win5.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.6070.80
possession avg (last 5)56.0049.40
rest days4.737.00
scorer concentration0.330.29
season ppg0.891.22
skill v10.95-0.74
sot against avg (last 5)5.003.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.893.56
sot for avg (last 3)6.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.804.20
state index-1.25-0.01
sterile dominance v10.53-0.29
threat rate (last 10)0.240.24
threat rate (last 3)0.230.19
threat rate (last 5)0.240.22