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Kayserispor 0–1 Antalyaspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Mon, Oct 31, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Cuneyt Cakir, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor win49%1.99
Draw28%3.52
Antalyaspor win23%4.21

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'⚽ (pen)Samuel Eto'o · Antalyaspor
43'🟨Umut Bulut · Kayserispor
77'🟨Mbilla Etame · Antalyaspor
90'🟨Samba Sow · Kayserispor
90'🟨Kenan Horic · Antalyaspor
90'🟨Saso Fornezzi · Antalyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporAntalyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.600.57
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days482.0030.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKadir Has Stadium
2.00
2.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.00-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.605.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.603.20
elo1479.801505.90
elo momentum (last 5)-6.87-25.71
eye test v1-1.26-0.67
eye trend v1-0.31-0.11
first sub minute (last 10)52.8852.25
form points (last 5)6.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.802.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.920.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.710.56
league points9.003.00
league rank15.0021.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet16.004.00
matches since win0.0010.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.2075.00
possession avg (last 5)43.4045.60
rest days10.048.04
scorer concentration0.560.50
season ppg0.900.33
skill v1-1.58-0.55
sot against avg (last 5)6.004.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.133.38
sot for avg (last 3)1.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.203.00
squad age26.3927.56
state index-0.29-1.13
sterile dominance v1-0.54-0.24
threat rate (last 10)0.210.23
threat rate (last 3)0.190.20
threat rate (last 5)0.180.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.00