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Trabzonspor 2–2 Rizespor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Oct 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Halil Umut Meler, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win55%1.76
Draw25%3.90
Rizespor win20%4.99

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'🟨Godfrey Oboabona · Rizespor
5'⚽Mehmet Ekici · Trabzonspor
10'🟨Robin Yalçın · Rizespor
19'⚽Leonard Kweuke · Rizespor
45'🟨Matúš Bero · Trabzonspor
48'🟨Dhurgham Ismail · Rizespor
64'🟨Oğulcan Çağlayan · Rizespor
67'⚽ (pen)Uğur Demirok · Trabzonspor
76'🟨Okay Yokuşlu · Trabzonspor
79'🟨Zeki Yavru · Trabzonspor
83'⚽Leonard Kweuke · Rizespor
88'🟨Mustafa Akbaş · Trabzonspor
90'🟨Jakob Jantscher · Rizespor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTrabzonsporRizespor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.24
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.27
box share (last 5)0.590.45
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days303.00699.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
elo1480.921474.19
elo momentum (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHüseyin Avni Aker Stadium
-7.50
-18.01
eye test v1-0.04-0.66
eye trend v1-0.080.13
first sub minute (last 10)52.3855.12
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.400.80
keeper form v10.690.73
league points10.008.00
league rank10.0014.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.005.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.6075.40
possession avg (last 5)50.0041.40
rest days7.888.88
season ppg1.251.00
skill v1-0.61-0.82
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.883.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.20
state index-0.35-0.39
sterile dominance v1-0.48-0.72
threat rate (last 10)0.250.26
threat rate (last 3)0.250.26
threat rate (last 5)0.260.25