⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Gaziantep 3–1 Osmanlispor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, Oct 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Baris Simsek, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Osmanlispor win44%2.24
Draw30%3.25
Gaziantep win26%3.70

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Aminu Umar · Osmanlispor
12'⚽İlhan Parlak · Gaziantep
49'⚽Davy Claude Angan · Gaziantep
51'🟨Musa Çağıran · Osmanlispor
52'🟨Elyasa Süme · Gaziantep
75'⚽ (og)Avdija Vršajević · Gaziantep
77'🟨Musa Çağıran · Osmanlispor
77'🟥Musa Çağıran · Osmanlispor
86'🟨Avdija Vršajević · Osmanlispor
87'🟨Aykut Demir · Osmanlispor
90'🟨Mohammed Fatau · Gaziantep

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGaziantepOsmanlispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.32
box share (last 5)0.440.51
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days120.003103.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)—3.58
elo1477.64
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGaziantep Kamil Ocak Stadium
1564.32
elo momentum (last 5)-20.44-28.38
eye test v10.210.16
eye trend v10.410.37
first sub minute (last 10)59.7557.60
form points (last 5)4.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)—0.70
keeper form v10.640.67
league points8.0011.00
league rank15.008.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win2.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.0075.40
possession avg (last 5)51.2051.60
rest days7.735.90
scorer concentration0.400.43
season ppg1.001.38
skill v1-0.48-0.07
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.754.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.336.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.204.80
state index-0.46-0.44
sterile dominance v1-0.51-0.32
threat rate (last 10)0.240.27
threat rate (last 3)0.240.34
threat rate (last 5)0.280.28
venue ppg (last 5)—1.20