⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Besiktas 3–0 Antalyaspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Oct 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Baris Simsek, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win72%1.35
Draw18%5.52
Antalyaspor win10%9.45

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'🟨Atiba Hutchinson · Besiktas
14'🟨Zeki Yildirim · Antalyaspor
45'🟨Deniz Kadah · Antalyaspor
45'🟨Samuel Eto'o · Antalyaspor
45'🟥Diego Angelo · Antalyaspor
45'⚽Vincent Aboubakar · Besiktas
56'🟨Marcelo · Besiktas
61'🟨Chico · Antalyaspor
72'⚽Anderson Talisca · Besiktas
89'⚽Anderson Talisca · Besiktas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBesiktasAntalyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.36
box share (last 5)0.510.50
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days510.0022.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
elo1561.061453.83
elo momentum (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVodafone Park
45.20
-37.32
eye test v11.03-0.42
eye trend v1-0.000.00
first sub minute (last 10)49.4349.71
form points (last 5)13.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.602.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.00
keeper form v10.79—
league points17.003.00
league rank2.0018.00
matches since blank7.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.6077.40
possession avg (last 5)63.6049.80
rest days8.086.00
scorer concentration0.330.50
season ppg2.430.43
skill v11.730.02
sot against avg (last 5)2.803.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.713.71
sot for avg (last 3)6.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.203.40
state index0.85-0.99
sterile dominance v10.860.23
threat rate (last 10)0.240.22
threat rate (last 3)0.290.20
threat rate (last 5)0.270.20