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Akhisarspor 1–0 Adana Demirspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ozgur Yankaya, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Akhisarspor win57%1.70
Draw27%3.61
Adana Demirspor win16%6.28

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'⚽Hugo Rodallega · Akhisarspor
35'🟨Caner Osmanpaşa · Akhisarspor
38'🟨Mervan Çelik · Akhisarspor
42'🟨Vladimir Koman · Adana Demirspor
44'🟨Didi · Adana Demirspor
57'🟨Onur Ayık · Akhisarspor
66'🟨Özer Hurmacı · Akhisarspor
81'🟨Onur Ayık · Akhisarspor
81'🟥Onur Ayık · Akhisarspor
90'🟨Tevfik Altındağ · Adana Demirspor
90'🟨Bekir Yilmaz · Adana Demirspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAkhisarsporAdana Demirspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.29
box share (last 5)0.530.53
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days51.0021.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
elo1477.561472.27
elo momentum (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueManisa 19 Mayis
-22.05
-17.71
eye test v1-0.69-0.27
eye trend v1-0.140.11
first sub minute (last 10)50.5758.29
form points (last 5)3.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.000.80
keeper form v10.830.64
league points6.005.00
league rank15.0016.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win6.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.0076.00
possession avg (last 5)46.0049.60
rest days6.006.98
scorer concentration—0.40
season ppg0.860.71
skill v1-0.74-0.14
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.433.86
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.003.80
state index-0.65-0.45
sterile dominance v1-0.32-0.21
threat rate (last 10)0.220.25
threat rate (last 3)0.180.26
threat rate (last 5)0.210.25