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Rizespor 2–1 Genclerbirligi

← Süper Lig 2016 · Fri, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Serkan Cinar, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genclerbirligi win37%2.63
Rizespor win32%3.07
Draw31%3.14

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Jakob Jantscher · Rizespor
19'🟨İrfan Can Kahveci · Genclerbirligi
23'🟨Serdar Gürler · Genclerbirligi
31'🟨Uğur Çiftçi · Genclerbirligi
41'🟨Godfrey Oboabona · Rizespor
45'🟨Selçuk Şahin · Genclerbirligi
46'🟨Ahmet Oğuz · Genclerbirligi
67'🟨Ante Kulušić · Genclerbirligi
76'⚽Vedat Muriqi · Genclerbirligi
81'🟨Ahmet Yılmaz Çalık · Genclerbirligi
82'⚽ (pen)Leonard Kweuke · Rizespor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRizesporGenclerbirligi
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.220.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.220.29
box share (last 5)0.430.49
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days690.00325.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
elo1464.441515.90
elo momentum (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÇaykur Didi Stadyumu
-19.02
0.31
eye test v1-0.85-0.77
eye trend v10.220.05
first sub minute (last 10)53.0057.14
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.60
keeper form v10.680.82
league points5.0010.00
league rank16.008.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.001.00
matches since win4.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.4073.20
possession avg (last 5)43.2049.80
rest days4.005.96
scorer concentration—0.33
season ppg0.711.43
skill v1-0.58-0.44
sot against avg (last 5)3.802.60
sot for avg (last 10)2.713.57
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.602.80
state index-0.63-0.03
sterile dominance v1-0.51-0.02
threat rate (last 10)0.250.22
threat rate (last 3)0.210.20
threat rate (last 5)0.240.20